Estimating the Current and Projected Water Needs for Livestock in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Due to the expansion in livestock numbers amid increasing water scarcity, this study aims to estimate both the current and projected water requirements for livestock in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia up to the year 2030. The analysis employs an econometric approach over the period from 2000 to 2023. The results indicate that livestock water requirements have been increasing at an average annual growth rate of 1.21%, reaching 137.54 million cubic meters in 2023, with an estimated value of SAR 66.29 million. These requirements represent approximately 1.12% of the total agricultural water use, which amounted to 12.3 billion cubic meters in the same year. Based on the identified determinants of livestock population and the estimated econometric model, the number of livestock units is projected to rise from 8.01 million units in 2026 to 12.56 million units by 2030. Accordingly, the water demand is expected to increase from 131.90 million cubic meters in 2026 to 206.66 million cubic meters in 2030.

    Given the scarcity of water resources and the low rainfall rates in the sedimentary basin regions, the study recommends enhancing the sustainability of livestock development by urging the Agricultural Development Fund to reconsider its loan distribution policy. The aim is to promote livestock expansion in the Arabian Shield regions (Makkah, Madinah, Jazan, Al-Baha, Asir, and Najran), which are characterized by higher rainfall rates and potential for natural pasture development.