An analytical study of some factors affecting barley imports in Libya using the NARDL model methodology

Abstract

This study aimed to analyze some of the factors affecting barley imports in Libya using the NARDL model methodology, employing time series data spanning from 1980 to 2024. The study concluded that there is a cointegration between the variables. Regarding short-term estimates, the results showed that negative changes in the international barley price (X2) had a negative impact, while the first difference had a positive impact on barley imports, with this effect being statistically significant for both variables. Negative changes in the rainfall variable (X3) also had a positive impact.  Similarly, exchange rate fluctuations had a positive impact on imports, as did positive changes in the initial exchange rate differential. Conversely, negative exchange rate fluctuations had a statistically significant negative impact. The results also showed no symmetry among the variables with significant effects. Regarding the long-term coefficients of negative and positive variables, the results indicate that negative changes in the global barley price were the only variable with a negative impact on barley imports. Furthermore, the model exhibited no problems and demonstrated effective predictive power.