Libyan–Italian Cooperation on Irregular Migration: Instruments and Challenges, 2017–2023

Abstract

This study assesses the instruments and limitations of Libyan–Italian cooperation on irregular migration between 2017 and 2023 through documentary analysis and descriptive statistics on sea arrivals. The assessment distinguishes declared commitments from implemented activities and sustained outcomes while separating movements departing Libya from total arrivals in Italy to avoid attributing changes in an aggregate measure to a bilateral policy. The evidence identifies coordination and technical assistance alongside specific protection pathways but does not establish an independent causal effect of the 2017 memorandum as arrivals declined through 2019 before increasing and their direction in 2023 differed from that of known attempted movements from Libya. The study proposes evaluating operational continuity and actual expenditure alongside procedures after disembarkation with shared indicators connecting each instrument to its objective and protection outcomes assessed independently of interception totals.